Carlos Leal vs Randy Brown
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Randy Brown59%
Carlos Leal 41%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Randy Brown a 59% favorite over Carlos Leal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1719 vs 1731), separated by just 12 points.
Randy Brown enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Carlos Leal finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Randy Brown 65%.
Carlos Leal and Randy Brown share 1 common opponent: Muslim Salikhov.
Randy Brown carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
23-7-0Record20-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'3"
74"Reach78"
169 lbsWeight170 lbs
Thai Brasil· 1652 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamBudokan Martial Arts Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1731
If they lose-12→ 1707
If they win+12→ 1743
If they lose-12→ 1719
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Carlos LealRandy Brown