Randy Brown vs Carlos Leal

DateOct 31, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 31, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 12:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Randy BrownRude Boy |20-8-0Randy Brown vs Carlos LealCarlos LealThe Lion |23-7-0

Randy BrownRude Boy20-8-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

20-8-0Record23-7-0

36Age32

6'3"Height5'11"

78"Reach74"

170 lbsWeight169 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Carlos LealThe Lion23-7-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Randy Brown owns a 24-point Elo edge (good). Randy Brown shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Randy Brown and Carlos Leal across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Randy BrownCarlos Leal

Recent form

Randy BrownL L W L W · -15 Elo last 5

LLWLW

Carlos LealW L W L W · +14 Elo last 5

WLWLW

Elo edge

Randy Brown1742-13 last move

Carlos Leal1718+16 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

55%Randy Brown45%Carlos Leal

Model favoriteRandy Brown

Elo baseline53% for Randy Brown

Matchup adjustment+2 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Randy BrownStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Randy Brown leads the full model at 55%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 1 point.

Current Elo ratings1742 · 1718Randy Brown leads by 24 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1727 · 1644Randy Brown faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth28 · 25 fightsRandy Brown has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesRandy Brown 3 · 1 Carlos LealStrongest available gap: Sig. strikes absorbed per min toward Randy Brown.

Stat advantages

Randy BrownvsCarlos Leal

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

3.33vs7.61

Submission average

0.56vs0

Sig. strikes landed per min

4.49vs9.57

Takedown accuracy

39%vs25%

Finishing profile

Randy BrownKO/TKO leads 40% of wins

Carlos LealKO/TKO leads 48% of wins

Common opponents

Muslim Salikhov Randy Brown: win · KO (punches) · Feb 3, 2024 Carlos Leal: loss · KO (punch) · Jul 26, 2025

Gabriel Bonfim Randy Brown: loss · TKO (knee) · Nov 8, 2025Carlos Leal: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Jul 18, 2021

Tale of the tape

Randy BrownCarlos Leal

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.49Sig. strikes landed per min9.57

UFC welterweight average : 3.68

47Sig. strike accuracy51

UFC welterweight average : 46%

3.33Sig. strikes absorbed per min7.61

UFC welterweight average : 3.83

54Sig. strike defense53

UFC welterweight average : 53%

0.76Takedown average0.75

UFC welterweight average : 1.33

39Takedown accuracy25

UFC welterweight average : 30%

73Takedown defense90

UFC welterweight average : 59%

0.56Submission average0

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

8Wins by knockout11

5Wins by submission2

7Wins by decision8

3Losses by knockout1

2Losses by submission1

3Losses by decision5

Randy Brown vs Carlos Leal is a scheduled Welterweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : MOICANO VS NOLAN. Randy Brown enters with a 20-8-0 record and Carlos Leal enters with a 23-7-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.