Carlos Petruzzella vs Kelvin Gastelum
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Kelvin Gastelum65%
Carlos Petruzzella 35%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 65% favorite over Carlos Petruzzella in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1691 vs 1693), separated by just 2 points.
Carlos Petruzzella finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.
Carlos Petruzzella carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
15-2-0Record20-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height5'9"
73"Reach71"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Brothers of Life MMATeamFight Ready
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1707
If they lose-16→ 1675
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1505 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Carlos PetruzzellaKelvin Gastelum