Casey Kenney vs Marlon Vera
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Marlon Vera68%
Casey Kenney 32%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Marlon Vera a 68% favorite over Casey Kenney in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Casey Kenney's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1725 vs 1724), separated by just 1 points.
Casey Kenney enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Casey Kenney finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Marlon Vera 79%.
Casey Kenney and Marlon Vera share 1 common opponent: Dominick Cruz.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
16-4-1Record24-12-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
70,0"Reach 70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Rise Combat SportsTeamTeam Oyama· 1643 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1741
If they lose-16→ 1709
If they win+12→ 1736
If they lose-12→ 1712
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1664 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1757 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Casey KenneyMarlon Vera