Casey O'Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-2-0Record11-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
69"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
Casey O'Neill is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Gabriella Fernandes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1714
If they lose-20→ 1682
If they win+20→ 1634
If they lose-12→ 1602
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Casey O'NeillGabriella Fernandes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Casey O'Neill88%
Gabriella Fernandes 12%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Casey O'Neill a 88% favorite over Gabriella Fernandes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Casey O'Neill holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1702 to 1614, a 88-point edge.
Casey O'Neill enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Casey O'Neill finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Gabriella Fernandes 55%.
Casey O'Neill carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.