Casey O'Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Casey O'Neill77%
Gabriella Fernandes 23%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Casey O'Neill a 77% favorite over Gabriella Fernandes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Casey O'Neill holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1702 to 1600, a 102-point edge.
Casey O'Neill enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Gabriella Fernandes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Casey O'Neill finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Gabriella Fernandes 55%.
Casey O'Neill carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
12-2-0Record11-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
69"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
Casey O'Neill is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Gabriella Fernandes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1713
If they lose-21→ 1681
If they win+21→ 1621
If they lose-11→ 1589
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Casey O'NeillGabriella Fernandes