Cezar Ferreira vs Ian Heinisch
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-11-0Record14-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
216 lbsWeight185 lbs
MMA MastersTeamGenesis MMA
What's at stake
Ian Heinisch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Cezar Ferreira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1606
If they lose-9→ 1582
If they win+12→ 1697
If they lose-20→ 1665
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1655 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cezar FerreiraIan Heinisch
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ian Heinisch78%
Cezar Ferreira 22%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Ian Heinisch a 78% favorite over Cezar Ferreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Ian Heinisch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1591, a 94-point edge.
Cezar Ferreira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ian Heinisch enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Cezar Ferreira finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Ian Heinisch 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.