Combat Edge Intelligence

Chang Ho Lee vs Long Xiao

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-2-0Record27-11-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'8"
69"Reach70"
136 lbsWeight136 lbs
Monster HouseTeamXin-Du Martial Arts Club

What's at stake

Chang Ho Lee is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Long Xiao carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chang Ho LeeNow 1703
If they win+15→ 1718
If they lose-17→ 1686
Long XiaoNow 1678
If they win+13→ 1691
If they lose-11→ 1667

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1589 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.92
Sig. strikes / min
5.06
67%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.35
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.85
40%
Strike defense
50%
3.27
Takedown avg.
0.74
33%
Takedown accuracy
11%
38%
Takedown defense
82%
0.36
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Chang Ho LeeLong Xiao
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (55%)
KO/TKO
5 (19%)
1 (9%)
Submission
9 (33%)
4 (36%)
Decision
13 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Chang Ho Lee51%
Long Xiao 49%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Chang Ho Lee a 51% favorite over Long Xiao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Chang Ho Lee holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1703 to 1678, a 25-point edge.

Long Xiao enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Chang Ho Lee finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Long Xiao 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.