Charles Oliveira vs Ilia Topuria
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
37-11-0Record17-1-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
74"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamCliment Club· 1711 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Ilia Topuria is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Charles Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1825
If they lose-11→ 1801
If they win+15→ 1844
If they lose-17→ 1812
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1767 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1758 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Charles OliveiraIlia Topuria
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ilia Topuria61%
Charles Oliveira 39%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Ilia Topuria a 61% favorite over Charles Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Ilia Topuria holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1829 to 1812, a 17-point edge.
Charles Oliveira enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Charles Oliveira finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Ilia Topuria 88%.
Charles Oliveira and Ilia Topuria share 2 common opponents: Max Holloway and Justin Gaethje.
Charles Oliveira carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.