Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
37-11-0Record28-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
74"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamGenesis Training Center
What's at stake
Justin Gaethje is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Charles Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1826
If they lose-10→ 1802
If they win+10→ 1879
If they lose-14→ 1855
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1767 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1808 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Charles OliveiraJustin Gaethje
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Gaethje70%
Charles Oliveira 30%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Gaethje a 70% favorite over Charles Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1812, a 57-point edge.
Charles Oliveira enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Charles Oliveira finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Justin Gaethje 79%.
Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje share 3 common opponents: Max Holloway, Ilia Topuria and Michael Chandler.
Charles Oliveira carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.