Combat Edge Intelligence

Charlie Campbell vs Mark Choinski

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-3-0Record8-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
72"ReachN/A
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Longo-Weidman MMATeamRoufusport· 1700 avg Elo · 7 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Charlie CampbellNow 1640
If they win+16→ 1656
If they lose-16→ 1624
Mark ChoinskiNow 1639
If they win+24→ 1663
If they lose-24→ 1615

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.55
Sig. strikes / min
0
54%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.73
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
2.95
Takedown avg.
TBD
40%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
71%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Charlie CampbellMark Choinski
155016001650202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (67%)
KO/TKO
1 (13%)
0 (0%)
Submission
5 (63%)
3 (33%)
Decision
2 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Charlie Campbell53%
Mark Choinski 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Charlie Campbell a 53% favorite over Mark Choinski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1640 vs 1639), separated by just 1 points.

Charlie Campbell finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Mark Choinski 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.