Chase Hooper vs Clay Guida
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Chase Hooper82%
Clay Guida 18%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Chase Hooper a 82% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Chase Hooper holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1598, a 107-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Chase Hooper finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Clay Guida 57%.
Chase Hooper carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
17-5-1Record38-25-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'7"
74"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Combat Sport & FitnessTeamTeam Alpha Male· 1650 avg Elo · 18 rated
What's at stake
Chase Hooper is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1716
If they lose-21→ 1684
If they win+16→ 1614
If they lose-8→ 1590
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1638 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chase HooperClay Guida