Chase Hooper vs Clay Guida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-1Record38-25-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'7"
74"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Combat Sport & FitnessTeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
Chase Hooper is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1717
If they lose-21→ 1685
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-8→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1638 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chase HooperClay Guida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chase Hooper92%
Clay Guida 8%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Chase Hooper a 92% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Chase Hooper holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1706 to 1599, a 107-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Chase Hooper finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Clay Guida 57%.
Chase Hooper carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.