Combat Edge Intelligence

Chase Hooper vs Magomed Mustafaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-5-1Record14-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'9"
74"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Combat Sport & FitnessTeamFight Club Akhmat· 1683 avg Elo · 20 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chase HooperNow 1705
If they win+16→ 1721
If they lose-16→ 1689
Magomed MustafaevNow 1705
If they win+16→ 1721
If they lose-16→ 1689

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1638 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.50
Sig. strikes / min
2.59
49%
Strike accuracy
59%
3.02
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.68
40%
Strike defense
41%
2.43
Takedown avg.
3.31
2%
Takedown accuracy
50%
55%
Takedown defense
23%
2.08
Submission avg.
0.41

Trajectory

Chase HooperMagomed Mustafaev
170017502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (24%)
KO/TKO
10 (71%)
9 (53%)
Submission
4 (29%)
4 (24%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Chase Hooper64%
Magomed Mustafaev 36%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Chase Hooper a 64% favorite over Magomed Mustafaev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1705 vs 1705), separated by just 0 points.

Chase Hooper finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Mustafaev 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.