Combat Edge Intelligence

Chelsea Chandler vs Melissa Croden

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-4-0Record8-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'10"
68"Reach69"
137 lbsWeight135 lbs
Cesar Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamRaven House MMA

What's at stake

Melissa Croden is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Chelsea Chandler carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chelsea ChandlerNow 1584
If they win+18→ 1602
If they lose-14→ 1570
Melissa CrodenNow 1622
If they win+14→ 1636
If they lose-18→ 1604

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.52
Sig. strikes / min
4.27
45%
Strike accuracy
47%
4.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.13
40%
Strike defense
59%
0.81
Takedown avg.
2.02
0%
Takedown accuracy
17%
25%
Takedown defense
67%
0.27
Submission avg.
0.34

Trajectory

Chelsea ChandlerMelissa Croden
15501600202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (29%)
KO/TKO
6 (75%)
2 (29%)
Submission
1 (13%)
3 (43%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Melissa Croden55%
Chelsea Chandler 45%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Melissa Croden a 55% favorite over Chelsea Chandler in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Melissa Croden holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1622 to 1584, a 38-point edge.

Chelsea Chandler finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Melissa Croden 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.