Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler

Oct 17, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast59%Melissa Croden41%Chelsea ChandlerFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 17, 2026

DivisionBantamweight

StatusScheduled

VenueRogers Place

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 17, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 9:00 AM
Your time

Melissa CrodenScare |8-3-0Melissa Croden vs Chelsea ChandlerChelsea Chandler7-4-0

Melissa CrodenScare8-3-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

8-3-0Record7-4-0

35Age32

5'10"Height5'8"

69"Reach68"

135 lbsWeight137 lbs

BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight

Chelsea Chandler7-4-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Melissa Croden owns a 38-point Elo edge (solid). Melissa Croden shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Melissa Croden and Chelsea Chandler across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Melissa CrodenChelsea Chandler

Recent form

Melissa CrodenW L W W W · +69 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Chelsea ChandlerW L L W L · -21 Elo last 5

WLLWL

Elo edge

Melissa Croden1622+18 last move

Chelsea Chandler1584+19 last move

Why they are ranked here

Melissa Croden#24 of 62 active Women Bantamweight fighters · 1622 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Tainara Lisboa (rated 1608 at the time): +30.
Costliest loss: Lost to Jacqueline Cavalcanti (rated 1550 at the time): -26.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +69 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #23 Thalyta Silva, 6 ahead of #25 Alice Pereira.

Chelsea Chandler#36 of 62 active Women Bantamweight fighters · 1584 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Josiane Nunes (rated 1670 at the time): +30.
Costliest loss: Lost to Joselyne Edwards (rated 1641 at the time): -25.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -21 Elo in total.
Next places: 4 points behind #35 Tainara Lisboa, 2 ahead of #37 Josiane Nunes.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

59%Melissa Croden41%Chelsea Chandler

Model favoriteMelissa Croden

Elo baseline55% for Melissa Croden

Matchup adjustment+4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Melissa CrodenStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Melissa Croden leads the full model at 59%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 4 points.

Current Elo ratings1622 · 1584Melissa Croden leads by 38 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1538 · 1569Chelsea Chandler faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth11 · 11 fightsThe published ratings use the same number of counted fights.

Largest tracked stat edgesMelissa Croden 4 · 0 Chelsea ChandlerStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Melissa Croden.

What's at stake

Melissa CrodenNow 1622 · #24 Women Bantamweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1636

Loses by decision-18→ 1604

Chelsea ChandlerNow 1584 · #36 Women Bantamweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1602

Loses by decision-14→ 1570

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Melissa CrodenvsChelsea Chandler

Takedown accuracy

17%vs0%

Takedown defense

67%vs25%

Takedown average

2.02vs0.81

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

2.13vs4.27

Finishing profile

Melissa CrodenKO/TKO leads 75% of wins

Chelsea Chandlerdecision leads 43% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Melissa CrodenChelsea Chandler

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.27Sig. strikes landed per min3.52

UFC bantamweight average : 3.72

47Sig. strike accuracy45

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

2.13Sig. strikes absorbed per min4.27

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

59Sig. strike defense40

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

2.02Takedown average0.81

UFC bantamweight average : 1.51

17Takedown accuracy0

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

67Takedown defense25

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

0.34Submission average0.27

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

6Wins by knockout2

1Wins by submission2

1Wins by decision3

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

3Losses by decision3

Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : BUCKLEY VS MALOTT. Melissa Croden enters with a 8-3-0 record and Chelsea Chandler enters with a 7-4-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.