Combat Edge Intelligence

Chepe Mariscal vs Christian Rodriguez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-7-0Record13-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'7"
69″Reach71″
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamRoufusport· 1700 avg Elo · 7 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chepe MariscalNow 1698
If they win+12→ 1710
If they lose-12→ 1686
Christian RodriguezNow 1696
If they win+16→ 1712
If they lose-16→ 1680

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1618 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.95
Sig. strikes / min
3.85
56%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.85
52%
Strike defense
57%
2.85
Takedown avg.
1.75
39%
Takedown accuracy
41%
73%
Takedown defense
67%
0.22
Submission avg.
1.05

Trajectory

Chepe MariscalChristian Rodriguez
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (39%)
KO/TKO
3 (23%)
3 (17%)
Submission
5 (38%)
8 (44%)
Decision
5 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Christian Rodriguez60%
Chepe Mariscal 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Christian Rodriguez a 60% favorite over Chepe Mariscal in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chepe Mariscal's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1698 vs 1696), separated by just 2 points.

Chepe Mariscal finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Christian Rodriguez 62%.

Christian Rodriguez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.