Chidi Njokuani vs Joel Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-12-0Record23-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'3"Height6'2"
80"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Joel Alvarez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Chidi Njokuani carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1723
If they lose-11→ 1699
If they win+15→ 1747
If they lose-17→ 1715
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1707 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chidi NjokuaniJoel Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chidi Njokuani53%
Joel Alvarez 47%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Chidi Njokuani a 53% favorite over Joel Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joel Alvarez's way (47%).
Joel Alvarez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1732 to 1710, a 22-point edge.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chidi Njokuani finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Joel Alvarez 96%.
Chidi Njokuani carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.