Chris Duncan vs Chris Padilla
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-3-0Record18-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
71"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamCalifornia Mixed Martial Arts· 1674 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1739
If they lose-16→ 1707
If they win+12→ 1736
If they lose-12→ 1712
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1631 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris DuncanChris Padilla
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Duncan58%
Chris Padilla 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Duncan a 58% favorite over Chris Padilla in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Padilla's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1723 vs 1724), separated by just 1 points.
Chris Padilla enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Chris Duncan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Chris Padilla 83%.
Chris Padilla carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.