Chris Duncan vs Renato Moicano
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-3-0Record21-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'11"
71"Reach72″
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
American Top TeamTeamFirst Fight Center
What's at stake
Renato Moicano is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Chris Duncan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1740
If they lose-15→ 1708
If they win+11→ 1754
If they lose-13→ 1730
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris DuncanRenato Moicano
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Duncan59%
Renato Moicano 41%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Duncan a 59% favorite over Renato Moicano in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Renato Moicano's way (47%).
Renato Moicano holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1743 to 1723, a 20-point edge.
Chris Duncan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Renato Moicano 62%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.