Chris Duncan vs Tom Nolan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-3-0Record11-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'2"
71"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTeam Compton Training Centre
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1739
If they lose-16→ 1707
If they win+16→ 1742
If they lose-16→ 1710
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris DuncanTom Nolan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Nolan53%
Chris Duncan 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Nolan a 53% favorite over Chris Duncan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1723 vs 1726), separated by just 3 points.
Tom Nolan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Chris Duncan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Tom Nolan 55%.
Chris Duncan and Tom Nolan share 1 common opponent: Charlie Campbell.
Tom Nolan carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.