Chris Duncan vs Yanal Ashmouz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-3-0Record8-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
71"Reach68"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamK Dojo Warrior Tribe
What's at stake
Chris Duncan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Yanal Ashmouz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1734
If they lose-20→ 1702
If they win+30→ 1665
If they lose-18→ 1617
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1657 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris DuncanYanal Ashmouz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Duncan76%
Yanal Ashmouz 24%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Duncan a 76% favorite over Yanal Ashmouz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Chris Duncan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1722 to 1635, a 87-point edge.
Chris Duncan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Yanal Ashmouz 75%.
Chris Duncan carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.