Chris Gruetzemacher vs Rafa García
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-5-0Record19-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'7"
68"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
2 Knuckle Sports MMA AcademyTeamTeam Elevation
What's at stake
Rafa García is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Chris Gruetzemacher carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1630
If they lose-10→ 1598
If they win+10→ 1766
If they lose-22→ 1734
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris GruetzemacherRafa García
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafa García92%
Chris Gruetzemacher 8%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafa García a 92% favorite over Chris Gruetzemacher in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Rafa García holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1756 to 1608, a 148-point edge.
Rafa García enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Chris Gruetzemacher finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Rafa García 56%.
Chris Gruetzemacher and Rafa García share 1 common opponent: Alexander Hernandez.
Rafa García carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.