Chris Padilla vs Ismael Bonfim
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-1Record20-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
74"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
California Mixed Martial Arts· 1673 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamCerrado MMA· 1624 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
Chris Padilla is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Ismael Bonfim carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1732
If they lose-15→ 1708
If they win+20→ 1663
If they lose-12→ 1631
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1631 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris PadillaIsmael Bonfim
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Padilla59%
Ismael Bonfim 41%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Padilla a 59% favorite over Ismael Bonfim in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Chris Padilla holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1643, a 80-point edge.
Chris Padilla enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Ismael Bonfim enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Chris Padilla finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Ismael Bonfim 65%.
Chris Padilla carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.