Chris Padilla vs Jai Herbert
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-1Record14-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'1"
74"Reach77"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
California Mixed Martial Arts· 1678 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamRenegade Jiu Jitsu
What's at stake
Chris Padilla is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jai Herbert carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1734
If they lose-14→ 1710
If they win+18→ 1693
If they lose-14→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1632 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris PadillaJai Herbert
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Padilla88%
Jai Herbert 12%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Padilla a 88% favorite over Jai Herbert in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Chris Padilla holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1724 to 1675, a 49-point edge.
Chris Padilla enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Chris Padilla finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Jai Herbert 79%.
Jai Herbert carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.