Chris Padilla vs Jai Herbert
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-1Record14-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'1"
74"Reach77"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
California Mixed Martial Arts· 1674 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamRenegade Jiu Jitsu
What's at stake
Chris Padilla is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jai Herbert carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1735
If they lose-13→ 1711
If they win+18→ 1708
If they lose-14→ 1676
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1631 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris PadillaJai Herbert
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Padilla52%
Jai Herbert 48%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Padilla a 52% favorite over Jai Herbert in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Chris Padilla holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1724 to 1690, a 34-point edge.
Chris Padilla enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Jai Herbert enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Chris Padilla finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Jai Herbert 79%.
Jai Herbert carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.