Chris Padilla vs Tom Nolan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-1Record11-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'2"
74"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
California Mixed Martial Arts· 1678 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamTeam Compton Training Centre
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1736
If they lose-12→ 1712
If they win+16→ 1742
If they lose-16→ 1710
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1632 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris PadillaTom Nolan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Padilla52%
Tom Nolan 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Padilla a 52% favorite over Tom Nolan in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tom Nolan's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1724 vs 1726), separated by just 2 points.
Chris Padilla enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Tom Nolan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Chris Padilla finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Tom Nolan 55%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.