Clay Guida vs Jim Miller
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record39-19-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
70"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamSussex County MMA
What's at stake
Jim Miller is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1614
If they lose-8→ 1590
If they win+8→ 1728
If they lose-16→ 1704
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1671 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1681 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaJim Miller
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jim Miller75%
Clay Guida 25%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Jim Miller a 75% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Jim Miller holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1720 to 1598, a 122-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Jim Miller 74%.
Clay Guida and Jim Miller share 3 common opponents: Chase Hooper, King Green and Bobby Green.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (3)
LossDecision (Unanimous) · 2020
LossDecision (Unanimous) · 2024