Combat Edge Intelligence

Cody Garbrandt vs Long Xiao

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-8-0Record27-11-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
65" Reach70"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamXin-Du Martial Arts Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Cody GarbrandtNow 1671
If they win+12→ 1683
If they lose-12→ 1659
Long XiaoNow 1679
If they win+12→ 1691
If they lose-12→ 1667

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.79
Sig. strikes / min
5.25
40%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.20
59%
Strike defense
50%
0.85
Takedown avg.
0.69
23%
Takedown accuracy
25%
82%
Takedown defense
80%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Cody GarbrandtLong Xiao
1700202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (73%)
KO/TKO
5 (19%)
0 (0%)
Submission
9 (33%)
4 (27%)
Decision
13 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Cody Garbrandt60%
Long Xiao 40%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Cody Garbrandt a 60% favorite over Long Xiao in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Long Xiao's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1671 vs 1679), separated by just 8 points.

Long Xiao enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Cody Garbrandt finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Long Xiao 52%.

Long Xiao carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.