Combat Edge Intelligence

Cortney Casey vs Cynthia Calvillo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-10-0Record10-6-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'4"
67"Reach64"
125 lbsWeight119 lbs
MMA LabTeamTiger Muay Thai

What's at stake

Cynthia Calvillo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Cortney Casey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cortney CaseyNow 1571
If they win+17→ 1588
If they lose-15→ 1556
Cynthia CalvilloNow 1589
If they win+15→ 1604
If they lose-17→ 1572

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1636 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.29
Sig. strikes / min
4.41
39%
Strike accuracy
38%
4
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.12
55%
Strike defense
64%
0.39
Takedown avg.
1.80
31%
Takedown accuracy
44%
40%
Takedown defense
78%
0.47
Submission avg.
0.81

Trajectory

Cortney CaseyCynthia Calvillo
1550160016502021202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
2 (20%)
4 (40%)
Submission
3 (30%)
3 (30%)
Decision
5 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Cortney Casey and Cynthia Calvillo within a point of even.

Cynthia Calvillo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1589 to 1571, a 18-point edge.

Cortney Casey finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Cynthia Calvillo 50%.

Cortney Casey carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.