Cub Swanson vs Nate Landwehr
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Cub Swanson61%
Nate Landwehr 39%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Cub Swanson a 61% favorite over Nate Landwehr in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Cub Swanson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1745 to 1628, a 117-point edge.
Cub Swanson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Nate Landwehr enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Cub Swanson finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Nate Landwehr 61%.
Nate Landwehr carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
31-14-0Record18-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
UFC Gym Costa MesaTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
Cub Swanson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Nate Landwehr carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1753
If they lose-16→ 1729
If they win+16→ 1644
If they lose-8→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cub SwansonNate Landwehr