Cynthia Calvillo vs Katlyn Cerminara
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-6-1Record18-6-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'9"
64"Reach68"
119 lbsWeight125 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamTeam Renzo Gracie
What's at stake
Katlyn Cerminara is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Cynthia Calvillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1609
If they lose-11→ 1577
If they win+8→ 1712
If they lose-16→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1636 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1678 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cynthia CalvilloKatlyn Cerminara
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Katlyn Cerminara68%
Cynthia Calvillo 32%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Katlyn Cerminara a 68% favorite over Cynthia Calvillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Katlyn Cerminara holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1704 to 1588, a 116-point edge.
Katlyn Cerminara enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Cynthia Calvillo finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Katlyn Cerminara 17%.
Cynthia Calvillo and Katlyn Cerminara share 1 common opponent: Jéssica Andrade.
Katlyn Cerminara carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.