Cynthia Calvillo vs Marina Rodriguez
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Marina Rodriguez60%
Cynthia Calvillo 40%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Marina Rodriguez a 60% favorite over Cynthia Calvillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Marina Rodriguez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1652 to 1588, a 64-point edge.
Marina Rodriguez enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Cynthia Calvillo finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Marina Rodriguez 47%.
Cynthia Calvillo and Marina Rodriguez share 1 common opponent: Jéssica Andrade.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
10-6-1Record17-6-2
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'7"
64"Reach65"
119 lbsWeight115 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamThai Brasil· 1652 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Marina Rodriguez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Cynthia Calvillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1607
If they lose-13→ 1575
If they win+10→ 1662
If they lose-14→ 1638
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1636 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1665 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cynthia CalvilloMarina Rodriguez