Damir Ismagulov vs Thiago Moisés
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-3-0Record19-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
74"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Boets MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Damir Ismagulov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Thiago Moisés carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1776
If they lose-15→ 1752
If they win+15→ 1698
If they lose-9→ 1674
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1627 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Damir IsmagulovThiago Moisés
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Damir Ismagulov60%
Thiago Moisés 40%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Damir Ismagulov a 60% favorite over Thiago Moisés in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Damir Ismagulov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1767 to 1683, a 84-point edge.
Damir Ismagulov enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Damir Ismagulov finishes 54% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Moisés 63%.
Damir Ismagulov and Thiago Moisés share 1 common opponent: Joel Alvarez.
Damir Ismagulov carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.