Daniil Matsola vs Kirill Grishenko
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Kirill Grishenko65%
Daniil Matsola 35%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Kirill Grishenko a 65% favorite over Daniil Matsola in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Kirill Grishenko holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1666 to 1602, a 64-point edge.
Daniil Matsola enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kirill Grishenko enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Daniil Matsola finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Kirill Grishenko 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
7-2-0Record10-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
-Reach-
240 lbsWeight247 lbs
Sech Pro· 1660 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamM2G Sports Club
What's at stake
Kirill Grishenko is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Daniil Matsola carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+28→ 1630
If they lose-20→ 1582
If they win+13→ 1679
If they lose-19→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1521 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Daniil MatsolaKirill Grishenko