Kirill Grishenko vs Daniil Matsola

DateOct 4, 2026

DivisionHeavyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueColosseum

BroadcastACA TV

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Sunday, October 4, 2026 — watch on ACA TV.

US East (ET): Sun 8:00 AM
US West (PT): Sun 5:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 PM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 PM
Your time

Kirill Grishenko9-2-0Kirill Grishenko vs Daniil MatsolaDaniil MatsolaPalach / Executioner |7-1-0

Kirill Grishenko9-2-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

9-2-0Record7-1-0

35AgeTBD

6'4"Height6'3"

-Reach-

247 lbsWeight240 lbs

HeavyweightWeight ClassHeavyweight

Daniil MatsolaPalach / Executioner7-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Kirill Grishenko owns a 23-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Kirill Grishenko and Daniil Matsola across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Kirill GrishenkoDaniil Matsola

Recent form

Kirill GrishenkoW W W W L · +47 Elo last 5

WWWWL

Daniil MatsolaL W W W W · +45 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Elo edge

Kirill Grishenko1647+16 last move

Daniil Matsola1624-28 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

49%Kirill Grishenko51%Daniil Matsola

Model favoriteDaniil Matsola

Elo baseline47% for Daniil Matsola

Matchup adjustment+4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Daniil MatsolaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Daniil Matsola is 51%, after Elo alone favored Kirill Grishenko at 53%.

Current Elo ratings1647 · 1624Kirill Grishenko leads by 23 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1552 · 1504Kirill Grishenko faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 8 sampled fights).

Elo record depth11 · 8 fightsKirill Grishenko has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Kirill GrishenkovsDaniil Matsola

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Kirill GrishenkoKO/TKO leads 44% of wins

Daniil MatsolaKO/TKO leads 86% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Kirill GrishenkoDaniil Matsola

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 3.71

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 49%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 3.89

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 51%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 1.41

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 30%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 54%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 0.45

4Wins by knockout6

1Wins by submission1

4Wins by decision0

1Losses by knockout1

1Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Kirill Grishenko vs Daniil Matsola is a scheduled Heavyweight fight on ACA 208 : SHAIKHAEV VS TUMENOV. Kirill Grishenko enters with a 9-2-0 record and Daniil Matsola enters with a 7-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.