David Dvořák vs Matheus Nicolau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-6-0Record19-5-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'6"
68"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
All Sports AcademyTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1675
If they lose-16→ 1643
If they win+16→ 1679
If they lose-16→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1592 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1646 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
David DvořákMatheus Nicolau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
David Dvořák56%
Matheus Nicolau 44%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes David Dvořák a 56% favorite over Matheus Nicolau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matheus Nicolau's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1659 vs 1663), separated by just 4 points.
David Dvořák enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
David Dvořák finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Nicolau 53%.
David Dvořák and Matheus Nicolau share 1 common opponent: Manel Kape.
David Dvořák carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.