Combat Edge Intelligence

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Umar Nurmagomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-7-1Record20-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'8"
68"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team FigueiredoTeamEagles MMA· 1817 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

Umar Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Deiveson Figueiredo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Deiveson FigueiredoNow 1764
If they win+14→ 1778
If they lose-10→ 1754
Umar NurmagomedovNow 1822
If they win+13→ 1835
If they lose-19→ 1803

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1755 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.57
Sig. strikes / min
3.86
54%
Strike accuracy
56%
3.43
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.86
50%
Strike defense
61%
1.61
Takedown avg.
4.03
8%
Takedown accuracy
8%
57%
Takedown defense
79%
1.18
Submission avg.
0.24

Trajectory

Deiveson FigueiredoUmar Nurmagomedov
17501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (36%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
9 (36%)
Submission
7 (35%)
7 (28%)
Decision
11 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Umar Nurmagomedov76%
Deiveson Figueiredo 24%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Umar Nurmagomedov a 76% favorite over Deiveson Figueiredo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Umar Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1822 to 1764, a 58-point edge.

Deiveson Figueiredo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Umar Nurmagomedov enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Deiveson Figueiredo finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Umar Nurmagomedov 45%.

Deiveson Figueiredo and Umar Nurmagomedov share 1 common opponent: Cory Sandhagen.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.

Common opponents (1)

LossTKO · 2025
Cory Sandhagen
WinDecision - Unanimous · 2024