Denise Gomes vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-3-0Record16-10-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'3"Height5'3"
63"Reach 64"
115 lbsWeight116 lbs
Parana Vale TudoTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Denise Gomes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Karolina Kowalkiewicz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1722
If they lose-20→ 1690
If they win+15→ 1646
If they lose-9→ 1622
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1619 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Denise GomesKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Denise Gomes85%
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 15%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Denise Gomes a 85% favorite over Karolina Kowalkiewicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Denise Gomes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1631, a 79-point edge.
Denise Gomes enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Denise Gomes finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.