Devin Smyth vs Victor Valenzuela
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record14-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Murcielago MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1631
If they lose-16→ 1599
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Devin SmythVictor Valenzuela
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Victor Valenzuela60%
Devin Smyth 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Victor Valenzuela a 60% favorite over Devin Smyth in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Devin Smyth's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1615 vs 1612), separated by just 3 points.
Victor Valenzuela enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Devin Smyth finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Victor Valenzuela 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.