Diego Giangirolami vs Kevin Caperna
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Caperna52%
Diego Giangirolami 48%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Caperna a 52% favorite over Diego Giangirolami in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Diego Giangirolami's way (44%).
Diego Giangirolami holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1496 to 1451, a 45-point edge.
Kevin Caperna enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
2-2-0Record2-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
TBDHeight5'2"
-ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight126 lbs
TeamAurora MMA· 1562 avg Elo · 15 rated
What's at stake
Diego Giangirolami is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Kevin Caperna carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1517
If they lose-27→ 1469
If they win+27→ 1478
If they lose-21→ 1430
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1487 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1496 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Diego GiangirolamiKevin Caperna