CAGE WARRIORS 211 ROME : BELLANDI VS VALENTE

Kevin Caperna vs Diego Giangirolami

DateOct 17, 2026

DivisionFlyweight

StatusScheduled

VenuePalapellicone

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 17, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Sat 12:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 9:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 5:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 6:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 3:00 AM
Your time

Kevin Caperna2-3-0Kevin Caperna vs Diego GiangirolamiDiego Giangirolami1-2-0

Kevin Caperna2-3-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

2-3-0Record1-2-0

TBDAgeTBD

5'2"HeightTBD

TBDReachTBD

126 lbsWeight125 lbs

FlyweightWeight ClassFlyweight

Diego Giangirolami1-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Kevin Caperna owns a 7-point Elo edge (average). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Kevin Caperna and Diego Giangirolami across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Kevin CapernaDiego Giangirolami

Recent form

Kevin CapernaL L W L W · -19 Elo last 5

LLWLW

Diego GiangirolamiL W L · -27 Elo last 3

LWL

Elo edge

Kevin Caperna1481-20 last move

Diego Giangirolami1474-29 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

48%Kevin Caperna52%Diego Giangirolami

Model favoriteDiego Giangirolami

Elo baseline49% for Diego Giangirolami

Matchup adjustment+3 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Diego GiangirolamiStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Diego Giangirolami is 52%, after Elo alone favored Kevin Caperna at 51%.

Current Elo ratings1481 · 1474Kevin Caperna leads by 7 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1500 · 1501Diego Giangirolami faced the stronger recent schedule (5 vs 3 sampled fights).

Elo record depth5 · 3 fightsKevin Caperna has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Kevin CapernavsDiego Giangirolami

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Kevin CapernaKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Diego Giangirolamisubmission leads 100% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Kevin CapernaDiego Giangirolami

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 44%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.87

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 55%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 27%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 57%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 0.60

1Wins by knockout0

0Wins by submission1

1Wins by decision0

1Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission2

2Losses by decision0

Kevin Caperna vs Diego Giangirolami is a scheduled Flyweight fight on CAGE WARRIORS 211 ROME : BELLANDI VS VALENTE. Kevin Caperna enters with a 2-3-0 record and Diego Giangirolami enters with a 1-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.