Dom Mar Fan vs Felipe Froes
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Felipe Froes57%
Dom Mar Fan 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Felipe Froes a 57% favorite over Dom Mar Fan in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dom Mar Fan's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1629), separated by just 1 points.
Dom Mar Fan finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Felipe Froes 52%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
9-3-0Record27-12-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
75" Reach-
156 lbsWeight158 lbs
Team Compton Training CentreTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1646
If they lose-16→ 1614
If they win+12→ 1641
If they lose-12→ 1617
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dom Mar FanFelipe Froes