Dom Mar Fan vs Marian Ziółkowski
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Marian Ziółkowski54%
Dom Mar Fan 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Marian Ziółkowski a 54% favorite over Dom Mar Fan in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dom Mar Fan's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1630), separated by just 0 points.
Dom Mar Fan finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Marian Ziółkowski 77%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
9-3-0Record26-12-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'1"
75" Reach-
156 lbsWeight156 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1646
If they lose-16→ 1614
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dom Mar FanMarian Ziółkowski