Donald Cerrone vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-0Record25-11-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'0"
73"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
BMF RanchTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Donald Cerrone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tony Ferguson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1720
If they lose-14→ 1696
If they win+14→ 1673
If they lose-10→ 1649
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Donald CerroneTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Donald Cerrone60%
Tony Ferguson 40%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Donald Cerrone a 60% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Donald Cerrone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1659, a 51-point edge.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Donald Cerrone finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Donald Cerrone and Tony Ferguson share 1 common opponent: Justin Gaethje.
Tony Ferguson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.