Dustin Jacoby vs Lucas Fernando
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-10-1Record14-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'3"
76"Reach81.5"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Factory XTeamRefit Pro Fighters
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1707
If they lose-12→ 1683
If they win+16→ 1709
If they lose-16→ 1677
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1701 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dustin JacobyLucas Fernando
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dustin Jacoby64%
Lucas Fernando 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Jacoby a 64% favorite over Lucas Fernando in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1695 vs 1693), separated by just 2 points.
Lucas Fernando enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Dustin Jacoby finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Fernando 71%.
Lucas Fernando carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.