Dustin Poirier vs Eddie Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-10-0Record30-8-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'9"
72″Reach69,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamRicardo Almeida Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Dustin Poirier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Eddie Alvarez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1823
If they lose-13→ 1799
If they win+13→ 1809
If they lose-11→ 1785
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1814 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PoirierEddie Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dustin Poirier66%
Eddie Alvarez 34%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Poirier a 66% favorite over Eddie Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Dustin Poirier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1796, a 16-point edge.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dustin Poirier finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Eddie Alvarez 80%.
Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez share 2 common opponents: Justin Gaethje and Conor McGregor.
Dustin Poirier carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.