Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
30-10-0Record28-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
72″Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamGenesis Training Center
What's at stake
Justin Gaethje is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Dustin Poirier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1826
If they lose-10→ 1802
If they win+10→ 1879
If they lose-14→ 1855
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1814 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1808 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PoirierJustin Gaethje
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Gaethje76%
Dustin Poirier 24%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Gaethje a 76% favorite over Dustin Poirier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1812, a 57-point edge.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Dustin Poirier finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Justin Gaethje 79%.
Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje share 4 common opponents: Max Holloway, Michael Chandler, Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Dustin Poirier carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.