Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Stoltzfus vs Marco Tulio Silva Costa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-8-0Record11-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
75"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Frankers Fight TeamTeamTeam Paraiba

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dustin StoltzfusNow 1660
If they win+12→ 1672
If they lose-12→ 1648
Marco Tulio Silva CostaNow 1658
If they win+16→ 1674
If they lose-16→ 1642

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1683 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.30
Sig. strikes / min
4.42
45%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.78
48%
Strike defense
58%
2.08
Takedown avg.
1.33
10%
Takedown accuracy
20%
47%
Takedown defense
0%
1.11
Submission avg.
0.66

Trajectory

Dustin StoltzfusMarco Tulio Silva Costa
1650202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (19%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
7 (44%)
Submission
1 (9%)
6 (38%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Dustin Stoltzfus62%
Marco Tulio Silva Costa 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Stoltzfus a 62% favorite over Marco Tulio Silva Costa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1660 vs 1658), separated by just 2 points.

Dustin Stoltzfus finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Marco Tulio Silva Costa 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.