Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Stoltzfus vs Punahele Soriano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-8-0Record13-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
75"Reach 72"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Frankers Fight TeamTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Punahele Soriano is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Dustin Stoltzfus carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dustin StoltzfusNow 1637
If they win+19→ 1656
If they lose-13→ 1624
Punahele SorianoNow 1711
If they win+13→ 1724
If they lose-19→ 1692

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.30
Sig. strikes / min
4.66
45%
Strike accuracy
55%
3.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.42
48%
Strike defense
48%
2.08
Takedown avg.
1.83
10%
Takedown accuracy
48%
47%
Takedown defense
40%
1.11
Submission avg.
0.14

Trajectory

Dustin StoltzfusPunahele Soriano
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (20%)
KO/TKO
7 (54%)
6 (40%)
Submission
2 (15%)
6 (40%)
Decision
4 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Punahele Soriano76%
Dustin Stoltzfus 24%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Punahele Soriano a 76% favorite over Dustin Stoltzfus in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Punahele Soriano holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1711 to 1637, a 74-point edge.

Dustin Stoltzfus enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Punahele Soriano enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Dustin Stoltzfus finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Punahele Soriano 69%.

Dustin Stoltzfus carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.