Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Stoltzfus vs Punahele Soriano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-8-0Record13-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
75"Reach 72"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Frankers Fight TeamTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Punahele Soriano is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Dustin Stoltzfus carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dustin StoltzfusNow 1660
If they win+14→ 1674
If they lose-10→ 1650
Punahele SorianoNow 1711
If they win+14→ 1725
If they lose-18→ 1693

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1683 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.30
Sig. strikes / min
4.66
45%
Strike accuracy
55%
3.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.42
48%
Strike defense
48%
2.08
Takedown avg.
1.83
10%
Takedown accuracy
48%
47%
Takedown defense
40%
1.11
Submission avg.
0.14

Trajectory

Dustin StoltzfusPunahele Soriano
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (19%)
KO/TKO
7 (54%)
7 (44%)
Submission
2 (15%)
6 (38%)
Decision
4 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Punahele Soriano62%
Dustin Stoltzfus 38%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Punahele Soriano a 62% favorite over Dustin Stoltzfus in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Punahele Soriano holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1711 to 1660, a 51-point edge.

Punahele Soriano enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Dustin Stoltzfus finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Punahele Soriano 69%.

Dustin Stoltzfus carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.