Edson Barboza vs Kyle Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-15-0Record17-7-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
75"Reach 71"
145 lbsWeight149 lbs
American Top TeamTeamHouse of Champions MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1681
If they lose-12→ 1657
If they win+12→ 1682
If they lose-12→ 1658
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1726 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Edson BarbozaKyle Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Edson Barboza57%
Kyle Nelson 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Edson Barboza a 57% favorite over Kyle Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kyle Nelson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1670), separated by just 1 points.
Edson Barboza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Kyle Nelson 59%.
Edson Barboza and Kyle Nelson share 1 common opponent: Billy Quarantillo.
Edson Barboza carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.