Elez Guri vs Gabriele Lionetti
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Gabriele Lionetti52%
Elez Guri 48%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Gabriele Lionetti a 52% favorite over Elez Guri in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Elez Guri's way (46%).
Elez Guri holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1531 to 1504, a 27-point edge.
Elez Guri enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Gabriele Lionetti enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
2-1-0Record2-2-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
TBDHeight5'7"
-Reach-
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Ars MartisTeamTiger Muay Thai
What's at stake
Elez Guri is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Gabriele Lionetti carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1553
If they lose-26→ 1505
If they win+26→ 1530
If they lose-22→ 1482
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1491 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Elez GuriGabriele Lionetti