CAGE WARRIORS 211 ROME : BELLANDI VS VALENTE

Gabriele Lionetti vs Elez Guri

DateOct 17, 2026

DivisionFlyweight

StatusScheduled

VenuePalapellicone

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 17, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Sat 12:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 9:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 5:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 6:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 3:00 AM
Your time

Gabriele LionettiThe Gentleman |2-1-0Gabriele Lionetti vs Elez GuriElez Guri1-1-0

Gabriele LionettiThe Gentleman2-1-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

2-1-0Record1-1-0

26AgeTBD

5'7"HeightTBD

TBDReachTBD

125 lbsWeight135 lbs

FlyweightWeight ClassFlyweight

Elez Guri1-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Gabriele Lionetti owns a 17-point Elo edge (average). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Gabriele Lionetti and Elez Guri across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Gabriele LionettiElez Guri

Recent form

Gabriele LionettiL W W · +25 Elo last 3

LWW

Elez GuriW L · +8 Elo last 2

Elo edge

Gabriele Lionetti1525-28 last move

Elez Guri1508+28 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

50%Gabriele Lionetti50%Elez Guri

Model favoriteGabriele Lionetti

Elo baseline52% for Gabriele Lionetti

Matchup adjustment-2 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Gabriele LionettiStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Gabriele Lionetti leads the full model at 50%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 2 points.

Current Elo ratings1525 · 1508Gabriele Lionetti leads by 17 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1509 · 1485Gabriele Lionetti faced the stronger recent schedule (3 vs 2 sampled fights).

Elo record depth3 · 2 fightsGabriele Lionetti has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Gabriele LionettivsElez Guri

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Gabriele LionettiKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Elez Gurisubmission leads 100% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Gabriele LionettiElez Guri

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 44%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.87

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 55%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 27%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 57%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 0.60

1Wins by knockout0

1Wins by submission1

0Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision1

Gabriele Lionetti vs Elez Guri is a scheduled Flyweight fight on CAGE WARRIORS 211 ROME : BELLANDI VS VALENTE. Gabriele Lionetti enters with a 2-1-0 record and Elez Guri enters with a 1-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.